Aug 29 2019
11:02 am

A few days ago, the NOAA National Hurricane Center said Dorian wasn't much of a storm and would fizzle out after it passed Puerto Rico.

Conditions have changed, though, and now they're saying it is a potential Category 4 (catastrophic) storm headed for the Melbourne area just south of Cape Canaveral (although that could be off by 200 miles in either direction), and could arrive by Monday. Florida has declared a state of emergency.

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Friday update: Changes in steering atmospheric conditions have moved the track a little further South. Dorian is now headed for West Palm Beach and Mar-a-Lago. Intensity is increasing and expected to continue. There is also now a possibility that the storm will stall just off the coast of Florida, causing extend periods of rain and damaging winds.

Friday afternoon update: Dorian is now a Category 3 hurricane. Further strengthening is expected.

Saturday morning update: Dorian is now a Category 4 hurricane, with a possibility of reaching Category 5. The good news is that models now have the storm tracking further north, once again towards Melbourne and the Space coast, but turning north along the coast before making landfall.

Sunday morning update: Dorian is now a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of 180 MPH. Central pressure is down to 913 MB. Experts say it's the strongest storm in modern history. It is still on a westerly track but expected to turn north without making landfall in Florida. It is hammering the Bahamas right now, and NOAA/NHC is reporting "catastrophic damage."

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